Top plays this week
The three biggest edges on the board right now.
Sports
NFL is live now. The other sports roll out one at a time once their slates are ready.
Track record
Every green play gets logged at the line it was posted and graded after the game, wins and losses alike.
See every graded pickHow the picks are made
Every sport runs through the same model. A set of factors built for that sport is scored game by game, turned into adjustments, played out 10,000 times, and graded against the sportsbook's price. No pick comes from a hunch, and none comes from repeating what TV analysts are saying.
Start with the market
The betting line is the sharpest public estimate there is, so it's the baseline. The spread, total and moneyline set each team's expected score before any of our research touches it.
Score the factors
Our algorithm works through a checklist of factors for each sport: matchups and head-to-head history, strategy and schemes, injuries and lineups, home and away splits, rest and travel, weather and venue, and recent form. Each one is researched game by game, not pulled from season averages.
Research the player props
Props get their own pass: role and usage, the opponent's weakness at that spot, and how the player has done in this matchup before. Long shots like first touchdown scorer and home runs are researched separately from everything else.
Turn research into adjustments
The factors become specific, measured adjustments to each team's expected score and each player's expected stats. They're kept deliberately modest, because the market is usually close and the edge lives in the details.
Simulate 10,000 games
Every game is played out 10,000 times with a simulation built for how that sport is scored. Football games are simulated by score, with both teams' outcomes linked through game script. Baseball games are played inning by inning, with starters and bullpens pitching their own innings. Every bet is graded from the same set of sims.
Grade against the price
We count how often each bet wins across the 10,000 games and compare it to how often it needs to win to make money at its price. The size of that gap decides the grade: green, yellow or red.
Log every result
Every green bet goes on the Record page before the game starts and gets graded after it ends, wins and losses alike. Nothing is deleted or regraded.
Football
NFL and college
- Last 10 head-to-head meetings
- Offensive and defensive schemes
- Injuries on both lines
- Matchup mismatches
- Weather, rest and travel
Baseball
MLB
- Starting pitchers' recent form and pitch mix
- Bullpen workload and quality
- Confirmed lineups and platoons
- Park, wind and temperature
- Home plate umpire
Basketball
NBA and college
- Pace and style matchups
- Rotations and minutes
- Injuries and rest days
- Back-to-backs and travel
- Home and away splits
- Play
Clears its break-even by a real margin: at least 1 to 1.5 points on game lines, and at least 4.5 points on player props, touchdown and home run bets, which carry more juice and more randomness.
- Lean
Right around break-even. Small stakes, or wait for a better number.
- Pass
No edge. The market has this one priced about right.
Each chart shows every outcome the sim considers. The football marks the projection, the yellow line is the betting line, and the shaded side is where the bet wins. Touchdown and home run bets show how often the player scores 0, 1, 2 or 3+ times.